A ‘super’ El Niño could reshape the outlook for UK farm businesses in 2026–27. Professor Trevor Williams, former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking and a rotating Chairman of the Institute of Economic Affairs Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, sets out what to expect and why the time to think about your farm’s financial position is now.

UK economic growth may be even more volatile later this year if scientific projections are correct and we experience a ‘super’ El Niño, with Pacific Sea‑surface temperatures expected to rise by more than 2°C above average, creating global weather disruptions and adding further economic risks.

Despite the UK’s distance from the Pacific, previous strong El Niño episodes — notably in 1997–98 and 2015–16 — showed the country’s vulnerability to global supply disruptions, increased winter precipitation, floods and higher food prices. This article examines the potential impacts of a super El Niño on an already stressed UK agricultural sector, which sits at the heart of the country’s food security and rural economy.

The UK faces a fragile economic environment this year—one which has already led to the departure of another Prime Minister, the sixth in 10 years. Economic growth is weak, productivity is stagnant, and the country is heavily dependent on imported food. Moreover, agriculture is already under pressure from rising input costs exacerbated by the war in Iran, persistent labour shortages, and climate‑related weather volatility, with an especially hot summer predicted. A super El Niño would intensify these challenges.

Import price inflation

The UK imports about half of its food. This dependence means global agricultural disruptions transmit rapidly into domestic markets. A super El Niño is projected to affect major producers of wheat, rice, palm oil, sugar, cocoa and coffee — all integral to UK supply chains. Previous super El Niño events caused global sugar prices to rise nearly 50% and palm oil by more than 30% within a year. Historical data show UK food inflation rose by 3–4 percentage points in the twelve months after a significant El Niño event.

For UK farmers, the picture is mixed. Farm‑gate prices may rise for some crops, but the costs of imported feed, fertiliser and energy would also increase. Livestock farmers are particularly vulnerable: global grain shortages push up feed costs, while dairy and beef producers face higher energy and transport expenses. Smaller farms, lacking the financial resilience of larger agribusinesses, are especially exposed to these cost shocks.

Domestic weather impact

Although the UK does not experience the extreme weather of the Pacific basin, El Niño still influences British weather patterns. Strong El Niño episodes are linked to wetter winters, increased flood risk and more variable summer rainfall. They can also raise global temperatures, increasing the likelihood of UK heatwaves in the following year.

These climatic conditions directly affect agricultural productivity. Increased winter precipitation disrupts planting schedules, leading to waterlogged soils and delaying fieldwork, thereby damaging early crop development. Unpredictable spring and summer rainfall affects the yields of wheat, barley and oilseed rape. Heatwaves increase livestock stress, reduce milk yields and raise mortality risks among poultry and pigs.

The UK’s agricultural sector already faces soil degradation, water‑management challenges and rising input costs; a super El Niño would worsen these issues.

Chart 1: UK crop yields vs rainfall changes in El Niño years
El Niño years show higher rainfall volatility and lower yields

Source: Based on historical UK Met Office rainfall anomaly data and DEFRA crop yield statistics for wheat, barley and oilseed rape (1996–2017)

Crop production under pressure

Wheat, barley and oilseed rape — core UK crops — are highly sensitive to rainfall variability, as the chart shows. Eastern England, which produces a large share of the country’s cereals, is vulnerable to drought stress during El Niño‑linked dry periods. Conversely, wetter winters in western and northern regions increase the risk of fungal diseases and reduce forage crop quality.

Fruit and vegetable producers face distinct challenges. Excessive rainfall can damage soft fruit, while heatwaves reduce yields of potatoes, brassicas and salad crops. Protected horticulture — such as greenhouse‑grown tomatoes and cucumbers — is vulnerable to higher energy costs if global gas prices rise during a super El Niño on top of current challenges.

Livestock and dairy impacts

Livestock farmers face both higher feed costs and increased heat stress. Dairy cows produce less milk under elevated temperatures, while beef cattle experience slower weight gain. Poultry flocks are highly sensitive to elevated temperatures, and heatwaves can cause sudden mortality. Pasture quality also declines during dry periods, forcing farmers to rely more heavily on purchased feed.

Rising input costs and financial strain

Fertiliser markets are already strained due to geopolitical tensions, and a super El Niño would further squeeze supply from the regions that normally keep global fertiliser markets in check. Fertiliser, feed, and fuel costs could all rise significantly.

Chart 2: UK feed costs track global grain prices
Global grain price spikes during El Niño feed through into higher UK feed costs

Source: FAO; AHDB; stylised reconstruction and author’s forecasts.

For many UK farmers, profitability would depend on government support schemes and the ability to manage input costs through forward purchasing and supplier agreements.

Key support mechanisms for UK farmers are transitioning rapidly and now include legacy Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) support and delinked payments, as well as the new Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI), environmental land management schemes, and capital and productivity grants. However, smaller farms — which constitute a significant proportion of UK agriculture — often don’t have the cash reserves or borrowing headroom to ride out a difficult year or two.

Food processing and retail impacts

The UK’s food‑processing sector would also face strain. Manufacturers reliant on imported sugar, cocoa, palm oil and grains would face higher costs and possible supply disruptions. Retailers would need to decide whether to pass increased costs to consumers or absorb lower profit margins. In all these examples, the agricultural sector remains central to the adjustment process and it is farmers who will feel the pressure first.

What can be done?

A super El Niño in 2026–27 would affect UK farming through global food markets, domestic weather patterns and rising input costs. Agriculture is both the initial point of impact and the channel through which wider economic pressures emerge. Protecting supply chains, providing targeted support to farmers, and government-led improvements to flood and heatwave preparedness to help ensure farm businesses can meet climate‑driven cost shocks will be essential.

A super El Niño cannot be stopped, but its consequences can be managed. With early preparation, smart support and targeted investment, the UK can shield its agricultural sector and strengthen long‑term food security.

About Professor Trevor Williams

Professor Trevor Williams is former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, where he led an award-winning team delivering economic insight to clients from major financial institutions to SMEs. Trevor is a Visiting Professor at the University of Derby, a rotating Chairman of the Institute of Economic Affairs Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, and author of “Trading Economics: A Guide to Economic Statistics for Practitioners.” He now runs an independent consultancy specialising in economic analysis and political economy.